Opinion: John Mearsheimer is Wrong About Ukraine

Dr. John J. Mearsheimer | Photo by Chatham House | CC

Dr. John Mearsheimer is a famous political scientist who specializes in offensive neo-realism (structural realism) in the field of international relations. He currently teaches at the University of Chicago.

Structural realists believe that the structure of the international system dictates the way states behave. They say states live in an anarchic system, meaning there is no higher authority above the state that can tell them what to do or that can help them. They do not believe that regime type matters for how states behave in the international system, regardless if it is an autocracy or democracy.

Structural realists view all states as self-interested, attempting to maximize their power to be the strongest state. It is a zero-sum game, one state's gain is the other's loss. This is because they will never know if a neighboring power will have malign intent. They also view states as rational actors whose main goal is survival.

They view states as the only actors in the international system, they do not believe nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) or intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) have much of an impact.

Structural realists think that states almost always see other states as potential enemies and threats to their national security.

Mearsheimer has been making some outlandish claims with regard to the war in Ukraine. He believes that Russia was defending itself from the West by invading and annexing parts of Ukraine. He claims that Russia saw NATO's expansion as an existential threat to the state's survival. Despite the fact that NATO is a defensive alliance, even if it was offensive, no state would invade Russia given the amount of nuclear weapons they possess.

In his article in The Economist, he writes:

“The West, and especially America, is principally responsible for the crisis which began in February 2014… The main cause was that Ukraine was becoming a de facto member of NATO. The process started in December 2017, when the Trump administration decided to sell Kyiv ‘defensive weapons.’ What counts as ‘defensive’ is hardly clear-cut, however, and these weapons certainly looked offensive to Moscow and its allies in the Donbas region.”

His argument is essentially that Russia is allowed to control its neighboring states simply because it is a powerful state and that it is the West’s fault for even working with Ukraine. He would rather the West sit back and allow Russia to indirectly control the government of Ukraine, similar to the way Russia controls Belarus.

Mearsheimer also argues that it does not matter if NATO is really a threat to Russia; how Russia views the situation is what really matters. This argument is not sound. Realists, like Mearsheimer, apparently believe states act rationally, or at least in their own minds they do. So is the rest of the world simply

supposed to tiptoe around Russia and do whatever they want simply because they have nuclear weapons?

Mearsheimer also frequently claims that Russia did not want to invade Ukraine and it had no choice due to the existential threat of the West. He fails to mention the fact that Russia has also already invaded Moldova, Georgia, and the Kuril Islands. Was that also the West's fault? Was that due to an existential threat to the survival of Russia?

In other interviews, Mearsheimer has stated that Putin does not generally lie to the West. Yet, there are many proven lies, such as when Putin said he was not invading Ukraine or that the “little green men” were not from Russia.

At the end of his article, he writes:

“If the West not only thwarts Moscow on Ukraine’s battlefields, but also does serious, lasting damage to Russia’s economy, it is in effect pushing a great power to the brink. Mr Putin might then turn to nuclear weapons.”

It seems that Mearsheimer thinks Russia can do whatever it wants given it has nuclear weapons.

Putin is an imperialist revisionist leader who wants the world to know that he will follow international law as he chooses. The reason why all of his neighboring states want to join NATO is because they are scared Russia will invade them.

Putin invaded Ukraine because he was worried that he would no longer be able to control the state and if it were a flourishing liberal democracy, perhaps his own people would wonder why they cannot have that kind of freedom as well.

Russian President Vladimir Putin | Photo by Kremlin.ru | CC BY 4.0